Key Points:

1. Crucial Phone Call: Trump and Putin held a phone conversation and agreed to "work together, very closely" to end the conflict in Ukraine.

2. Immediate Negotiations: Teams from both countries will begin peace talks "immediately."

3. Ukraine's Role in Question: It remains unclear what role Ukraine will play in the negotiations, despite being the directly affected country.

4. Criticism of NATO: Trump, through his Secretary of Defense, questioned the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO, contradicting the Biden-era stance.

5. Prisoner Swap as a Prelude: The release of American professor Marc Fogel by Russia paved the way for the announcement.

Tips for Understanding the New Landscape:

• Caution Amidst Uncertainty: It's too early to determine if Trump's announcement will translate into a concrete peace agreement.

• Attention to International Reaction: The international community, especially NATO allies, is watching Trump's moves closely and cautiously.

• Impact on the 2024 Elections: Trump's stance on Ukraine and Russia will be a central issue in the presidential campaign.

Comments and Timeline on Trump and the Ukraine Peace Negotiations:

Comments:

1. Trump sees Putin as a "great competitor" and sometimes an "adversary" but seeks to "find common ground" with him. (Karoline Leavitt, White House Press Secretary)

2. "They were very good calls. They were very positive." (Leavitt on Trump's calls with Putin and Zelenskyy)

3. "Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine." (Phrase repeated by Biden and his advisors, contrasting with Trump's current stance)

4. "We discussed the strengths of our respective nations and the great benefit we will someday have by working together." (Trump on his call with Putin)

5. "But first, as we both agreed, we want to stop the millions of deaths that are occurring in the Russia/Ukraine war." (Trump on his agreement with Putin)

6. "The Russian president supported one of the main theses of the U.S. president that the time has come for our two countries to work together." (Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson)

7. "I am grateful to President Trump." (Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine)

8. "Russia treated us very well, very well indeed. I hope that is the beginning of a relationship where we can end that war." (Trump on Fogel's release)

Timeline:

• August 2021: Marc Fogel, an American teacher, is arrested in Russia for marijuana possession.

• February 2022: Russia invades Ukraine. The Biden administration promises support to Ukraine and its future NATO membership.

• 2022-2024: Fogel is excluded from several prisoner swaps between Russia and the United States.

• Prior to February 8, 2025: Trump and Putin hold a phone call to discuss the war in Ukraine.

• February 8, 2025: Russia releases Fogel in exchange for Russian cybercriminal Alexander Vinnik. Trump receives Fogel at the White House.

• February 8, 2025 (after the swap): Trump announces on social media his agreement with Putin to begin peace negotiations in Ukraine.

• February 8, 2025 (after the announcement): Trump speaks with Zelenskyy by phone.

• February 8, 2025 (end of day): Officials from the White House and the Kremlin offer statements on the talks and the prisoner exchange.

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Synoptic Table:

This new chapter in the Ukraine war, orchestrated by Trump, opens an unpredictable scenario with global ramifications.

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